Critical
6 dispatches
“The U.S. does not possess infinite political capital, bandwidth, military capacity, or economic resilience. We are succumbing to imperial temptations.”
Developing
9 dispatches
Expert Roster
Contributing analysts & scholars
Stable
2 dispatches“58 percent of Americans disapprove of U.S. military strikes against Iran. The war is straining alliances, creating anger among publics at home and abroad, and emboldening an Iranian leadership hostile to the United States.”
Intelligence Briefing
Three Scenarios for a Post-Trump World
The critical question, to be answered in the coming decade, is whether Washington tries to replace that world with something fraught but tolerable — or drives the present uncertainty toward something radically worse. The first scenario is a new cold war in which the United States and China coerce the rest of the world to pick a side. The second is a planet fragmented into regional spheres of influence. The third is darker still: a "self-help" world in which the United States adopts a predatory approach and the global system collapses into anarchy.
The Iran War Is Making America Less Safe
Rather than creating a world more friendly to U.S. interests, the war is disrupting U.S. alliances, empowering a regime more hostile to the United States than the one Trump sought to remove, and unleashing anti-Americanism. 58 percent of Americans disapprove of U.S. military strikes against Iran. The U.S. war with Iran is straining alliances, creating anger among publics at home and abroad, and emboldening an Iranian leadership hostile to the United States.
America Is Losing the Innovation Race
The United States is at risk of ceding its long-held leadership in scientific innovation to China. Federal funding cuts, restrictive immigration policies, and a hostile environment for international researchers are undermining the very ecosystem that made American innovation the envy of the world. Without urgent course correction, the consequences for U.S. economic competitiveness and national security will be severe.
How Geopolitics Overran Globalization
The era of hyperglobalization is over. What has replaced it is a world in which economic relationships are increasingly mediated by geopolitical considerations. The United States, once the architect and guarantor of the global trading system, now sees international trade not as a public good but as a zero-sum game. This shift has profound implications for the global economy and America's place in it.
We're in a New World Disorder
The leaders of the world's biggest economic and military power feel unconstrained by domestic or international law when it comes to waging war or toppling leaders of countries they deem to be a threat; they no longer wish to be responsible for Europe's defense; and they see international trade not as a global public good but as a zero-sum game that must be won by any means necessary.